Chris Brown:
Hello everybody, and welcome to the latest episode of our Negotiating Government podcast from Negotient, the consultancy that specialises in public-private negotiations. I’m Chris Brown, co-founder of Negotient, and I’m delighted to be joined by my colleague Josh Flax, who leads our US operation.

Josh Flax:
Hi Chris, it’s nice to be here.

Chris Brown:
This is going to be a fascinating discussion. Perhaps the most fascinating ever. Big, beautiful, making podcasts great again.

Josh Flax:
I certainly hope so. You suggested this one, Chris. Why?

Chris Brown:
I thought last month’s trade deal between the UK and US was a neat snapshot of the moves that Trump tends to make. We rarely have a structured conversation about his style, which is surprising because there is a lot to analyse and potentially learn from, whether you admire it or not.

Josh Flax:
You’re right. Most people think they understand his style because they react strongly to him. But people tend to either dismiss his techniques as bluster or treat them as something mysterious. Rarely do we break them down and evaluate what’s actually happening using negotiation frameworks.

Chris Brown:
Let’s try to analyse this objectively. Let’s walk through the sequence of events that led to the deal and see what lessons we can draw.

Josh Flax:
I’ll start with a recap and you can jump in.

Chris Brown:
Go ahead.

Josh Flax:
Let’s rewind to April 2nd. The White House imposes a flat 10% tariff on all countries. Ally or rival, it doesn’t matter. That move reframes the baseline. Zero tariffs are no longer the norm but a privilege that Washington can restore.

Chris Brown:
So everyone is suddenly worse off, and returning to normal starts to feel like a concession.

Josh Flax:
Exactly. Then there are signals in the media suggesting the UK might improve its position if it opens agricultural markets. That creates movement in the press and markets.

Chris Brown:
And then the UK steps forward, offering to engage directly.

Josh Flax:
Yes. And it’s worth noting that Starmer had already begun building a relationship earlier in the year. That was deliberate. But continuing the timeline, the UK enters bilateral discussions with the US.

Chris Brown:
Weeks of negotiation follow. The UK believes a deal is close, slightly favouring the US but broadly balanced. Then comes the late-night call. Trump speaks to Starmer, and within minutes they finalise the deal, but with an additional concession: the UK removes its ethanol tariff.

Josh Flax:
Shortly after, Trump announces a major win, while the UK’s statement downplays the ethanol element.

Chris Brown:
So what’s really happening here? Who is winning, and what can negotiators learn?

Josh Flax:
The first technique is creating the problem and then offering the solution. The tariffs create pressure, and selective relief becomes the reward.

Chris Brown:
Closely linked is anchoring. Start with an extreme position and move to something less extreme.

Josh Flax:
And these are not subtle anchors. They are bold, headline-driven positions that shift expectations.

Chris Brown:
The aim is to move the entire frame of what is considered possible. Once expectations shift, a compromise still looks like a win.

Josh Flax:
Another key point is focusing on the other side’s weaknesses, particularly their alternatives. Trump is highly attuned to what “no deal” looks like for the other side and uses that to his advantage.

Chris Brown:
He also projects indifference to his own risks, even when those risks exist. That shapes the other side’s perception of his willingness to walk away.

Josh Flax:
This creates leverage. Even if no deal is costly for both sides, the party that fears it more is at a disadvantage.

Chris Brown:
He also keeps options open and avoids irreversible commitments, while maintaining the appearance that he is willing to walk away.

Josh Flax:
Let’s look at the UK’s strategy. Starmer made two key decisions: to negotiate and to go first.

Chris Brown:
That carries risk. Being first means you don’t know what a “good” deal looks like yet.

Josh Flax:
But it also creates opportunity. Trump needed an early success to validate his tariff strategy. Starmer likely recognised that and used it to secure a deal.

Chris Brown:
Then there’s the late-night call. What happens in those moments?

Josh Flax:
Pressure increases significantly. Decision-making compresses. Preparation is limited. The person receiving the call is forced to respond quickly to a pre-framed situation.

Chris Brown:
Could the UK have resisted?

Josh Flax:
Possibly, but the pressure is intense. The risk of losing the deal entirely becomes very real.

Chris Brown:
And the concession requested was carefully chosen. Significant, but not central enough to justify risking the entire agreement.

Josh Flax:
Another lesson is control of process. Trump dictated timing and framing at a critical moment.

Chris Brown:
That’s something many negotiators overlook. Process is a powerful lever.

Josh Flax:
Finally, there’s narrative control. Trump communicated first and framed the outcome before others could respond.

Chris Brown:
And first impressions tend to stick. Later corrections rarely have the same impact.

Josh Flax:
So what are the key takeaways?

Chris Brown:
First, shift the baseline early so that concessions appear generous.

Josh Flax:
Second, use ambitious anchors, but retain flexibility to adjust.

Chris Brown:
Third, understand the other side’s fear of no deal and use it.

Josh Flax:
Fourth, control the timetable and the narrative.

Chris Brown:
And finally, study the techniques of others, even those you don’t necessarily admire.

Josh Flax:
And remember, these tactics depend on your level of leverage. They are not universally transferable.

Chris Brown:
Agreed. Thank you, Josh.

Josh Flax:
Thank you, Chris.

Chris Brown:
And thank you to our listeners. We’ll be back soon with another episode of Negotiating Government. If you’d like to learn more about our work, please visit our website. Thanks for listening.